Air China (601111) quarterly report review for 2019: earnings will take the lead in upward performance and high growth will be ushered in

Air China (601111) quarterly report review for 2019: earnings will take the lead in upward performance and high growth will be ushered in

This report reads: The profit growth of the main business in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the certainty of high growth in the second and third quarters is high.

Air China’s revenue is expected to rise first in the second quarter, which is expected to catalyze an improvement in fundamentals.

  Key investment points: Yields will rise first, and performance will increase.

It is expected that the skull 深圳桑拿网 effect of Air China will be clearly reflected in the second quarter, and high-quality moments and customer sources will help to take the lead in displaying pricing power.

Decide on long-term value at all times and continue to be optimistic about Air China’s future profitability.

Maintain 2019 EPS forecast of 0.

78/0.

88/1.

01 yuan.

Maintain target price of 14.

04 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

  The profit of the main business increased significantly in the first quarter.

In the first quarter, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 3 per year.

6%.

The main business profit after replacing exchange gains grew by about 17%, better than our expectations.

Revenue: In the first quarter, ASK increased by 7% per year, and the revenue of seat kilometers reached basically the same. Among them, the 杭州夜网论坛 load factor increased by more than 0.

For 3 units, the passenger-kilometer revenue decreases slightly every year.

Cost side: It is estimated that the price of oil consumption in the first quarter will decrease by about 3% each year, and the fuel consumption of seat kilometers will continue to decrease slightly.

  Amplify the exchange rate sensitivity by renting the table.

On January 1, 2019, Air China’s operating leased aircraft entered the table.

  (1) Balance sheet: debt ratio increased by 6.

At 7%, US dollar debt increased from 28.8 billion in the initial period to 60.3 billion.

In Q1, the RMB appreciated by 2% against the US dollar, and the exchange income before tax exceeded 1.3 billion.

(2) Income statement: Entering the statement makes a single leased aircraft “expense forward”.

Air China ‘s overall leased fleet is slightly in the middle of the lease period, slightly distorting profits, and the cost of the same caliber in the later period will gradually decrease.

  It is expected that Air China’s revenue will take the lead in the second quarter.

Air China has a high-quality network and customer base, and the industry was the first to show its pricing power during a downturn.

(1) The May Day holiday and the Beijing Garden Expo will help improve supply and demand in North China.

(2) It is expected that the fare marketization policy of Singapore Airlines will gradually advance, and Air China’s suppressed pricing power will continue to be realized.

Combined with the pre-sale situation, it is expected that Air China will take the lead in increasing earnings in the second quarter, and the frequency conversion data will catalyze the expected improvement of fundamentals.

  risk warning.

Demand fluctuation risk, exchange rate oil price risk, policy risk, security accident risk.